A historically familiar pattern appeared to be reemerging as 2026 began, with strong private equity deal flow through the second half of 2025 accelerating further into the new year, a dynamic that has historically preceded increased corporate real estate monetization in the quarters that follow. North American M&A activity continued its surge into the fourth quarter of 2025, setting a new quarterly record for deal value even as middle market activity remained comparatively subdued, with average purchase price multiples holding steady and pricing stability largely maintained. If this historical relationship holds, the renewed wave of corporate transaction activity may provide a constructive backdrop for sale leaseback activity in 2026, further supported by an attractive arbitrage between business and real estate multiples. The U.S. sale leaseback market recorded 714 discrete transactions in 2025, representing a 3% increase from the prior year, while aggregate dollar volume rose 18% to approximately $14.4 billion. Fourth quarter activity was particularly strong, with sale leaseback dollar volume increasing approximately 56% to $4.7 billion in Q4 2025, compared with roughly $3.0 billion in Q3 2025, as larger transactions returned to the market. Scott Merkle, Managing Partner of SLB Capital Advisors noted, “Activity meaningfully accelerated during the second half of the year, signaling growing momentum heading into 2026.”
